SESSION RECAPS - GPC Conference 2025

Decarbonization, digitalization and deglobalization are defining the energy opportunity in 2024. Globally, renewables investment was double that for conventional energy last year — even amidst a changing conversation about climate and energy access — because renewable solutions are often the lowest cost and fastest to come online.The mainstream conversation about non-US opportunities has often failed to account for the fact that project finance default rates are higher in the US than in Africa. Risk perception often doesn’t match reality when considering the long-term contracts, multilateral support and other risk mitigants available in many global markets. Trump’s on-again and off-again tariffs are leading to the unwinding of US bets on a few select tech businesses, and investors are asking where else they can commit capital given the recent policy changes. Trade wars will create challenges in the renewables supply chain, which runs through China, but many global investors have been grappling with this issue for some time already.

Advent International has a sector-specific approach in information technology and in-depth market knowledge of Latin America. Neoris is a successful investment informed by sector and market-specific experience, from the carve-out from its parent company to the eventual sale to a strategic buyer.

TVM Healthcare Capital focuses on unmet medical needs in developing markets. Alina Vision addresses this gap by improving access to cataract surgery in rural areas of Vietnam. TVM has transformed Alina Vision from a social enterprise to a commercially viable and scalable business.

BTG Pactual’s investment in Celcoin leveraged the changing trends of fintech in Brazil by obtaining a banking license and pivoting the business model to offering its established payment infrastructure as a service.

GEF Capital is focused on investing in the energy resilience value chain. Global supply chain disruptions exposed the importance of diversification and developing domestic manufacturing. Premier Energies was a mid-market company transformed by GEF Capital into the leading clean energy manufacturer in India and brought to IPO in 2024.

By 2050, roughly two-thirds of global emissions are projected to come from China, India and Africa. Consumers in these markets are primarily motivated by price imperatives to transition towards a low-carbon economy. Therefore, firms are focused on companies that are able to showcase a strong value proposition to consumers without reliance on subsidies, proving resilient and profitable despite policy shifts. In these markets today, there is a premium on early investment opportunities that can lead to outsized impact and return potential.

Amid rapid global shifts driven by technological innovation and fluid policymaking, renewable energy remains a core investment focus, particularly as it fuels growth data centers and broader tech infrastructure. Food security has also emerged as a key theme, with capital flowing into agtech and sustainable farming models. In markets like India, rising consumption, deep talent pools and growing demand for accessible healthcare are unlocking diverse investment opportunities and strong returns. Meanwhile, Japan offers attractive prospects through public-to-private deals and undervalued companies with strong fundamentals.

Panelists highlighted a trend toward diversifying LP bases beyond traditional sources, with growing interest from Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Forestry funds, the rise of private credit in under-penetrated markets and multi-asset strategies are also gaining momentum as key areas of growth. Across the board, the discussion emphasized the importance of adaptability, long-term partnerships and local market insight in building strategies that address global challenges.

This session explored how rising trade tensions and a shifting global order are influencing investment strategies. The presentation focused on how governments are responding to supply chain realignments, inflation and evolving alliances. In this context, investors were encouraged to prioritize scenario planning, build in a margin of safety and proactively stress test portfolios. While certain sectors such as software may be more insulated from external shocks, geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important factor in global capital allocation.

The global fan base for mixed martial arts (MMA) has grown to 650 million viewers as streaming services increase media access in markets with low disposable income. 60% of Africa’s population is under the age of 25, with demand for media and entertainment expected to increase significantly in the decades to come. PFL and Helios Sports & Entertainment Group launched PFL Africa to foster local talent and to generate viewership, sponsorship and live entertainment revenues from Africa’s growing fanbase. PFL is partnering with other strategic investors, including Alex Rodriguez, David Blitzer (Blackstone) and the Public Investment Fund, to develop regional MMA leagues across Europe, MENA, Asia and Latin America.

In markets where doctor-led healthcare models have created fragmented healthcare systems, investors are scaling healthcare platforms to fill gaps left by incumbents. Dialysis and oncology chains, diagnostics centers and pharmaceutical platforms have generated significant growth for investors across global markets. Investors are doubling down on tech-enabled solutions — including telemedicine, precision robotic surgery and algorithms for diagnosis — to deliver healthcare services to consumers at significantly reduced costs.

The panelists discussed how sustainable practices can drive alpha by decreasing overhead costs, expanding the universe of potential buyers and reducing the cost of capital.

Additionally, sectors traditionally viewed as environmentally unsustainable can present compelling investment opportunities. By financing industry leaders and promoting improved practices, investors can drive both economic value and positive environmental outcomes.

Land is a scarce, real asset that serves as a natural inflation hedge. Therefore, farmland’s long-duration profile and low correlation with other asset classes make it a key component of a diversified portfolio.

Panelists emphasized that private credit in emerging markets offers investors uncorrelated income streams, stronger underwriting control, and enhanced collateral protections — particularly in regions where borrowers face limited access to traditional funding. Local presence and regulatory fluency were highlighted as critical to structuring effective transactions. In Latin America, rigid banking systems and volatile rates create openings for flexible lenders. Asia’s diverse market landscape enables investors to target regions with under-penetrated credit markets, allowing them to fill financing gaps and unlock compelling return opportunities. Across regions, a common thread emerged: by identifying undercapitalized areas and focusing on downside protection, managers are navigating uncertainty while capturing attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Institutional investors continue to allocate capital to private markets at a steady pace, driven by strong conviction in private markets' role within long-term portfolio construction. As the mid-market playbook evolves, there is less focus on multiple expansion and more emphasis on disciplined capital deployment, sustainable business growth and backing exceptional management teams. Diversification across geographies, sectors and managers remains a top priority. In this environment, manager selection has become more critical than ever, with investors seeking disciplined fund managers capable of identifying and scaling businesses at the right entry point. Meanwhile, secondaries are playing an increasingly important role in providing liquidity, with growing interest in direct venture secondaries and tail-end assets.

Investors everywhere are reacting to US President Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs announcement and modeling the impact on their portfolios. What is clear is this is not like COVID, where there were obvious “red” and “green” cases that would be clearly negatively or positively impacted in short order. Second- and third-order impacts on consumers and businesses will be more relevant now as there are fewer private capital-backed export and manufacturing businesses. GPs globally have a large book of unrealized businesses that could now stay unrealized for longer. The US represents 4% of global population, 26% of GDP and 70% of global equity market capitalization, and the volatility of the preceding week has re-taught global investors the importance of diversification. Analysis of historical returns suggests the best performance comes from businesses with strong earnings and revenue growth over the holding period. To the extent global investors can find more of those businesses in regions like Asia, capital will flow there.

This year’s Women in Global Private Capital Breakfast focused on "Cultivating the Next Generation of Women Founders and Partners". Following a fireside chat sharing experiences on founding and leading one’s own fund, as well as making partner at an established private capital player, participants had small-group discussions on practical considerations and relevant strategies from both the firm and individual perspectives. Topics included the business case for diversity, the role of mentorship and professional development and whether “work-life balance” was the best framework. This event was supported by Quona Capital, L Catterton and the Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative (We-Fi).

AI companies are delivering real value as infrastructure providers expand application areas for enterprise and consumer sectors. Although the majority of deep infrastructure companies have emerged from the US, tech talent in other markets will continue to develop competitive platforms. Geopolitical factors are spurring the development of AI-based manufacturing and cybersecurity solutions, while recent developments in US economic policy have increased global asset allocator appetite for geographically diverse portfolios. As global markets find maturity, local ecosystems face challenges with access to growth stage funding, creating entrepreneurs focused on capital efficiency. Investors continue to identify creative paths to liquidity including IPOs in high liquidity regions such as the Middle East and strategic sales to financial investors.

Regulation in digital payments is generally lacking in growth economies. Big players like Moniepoint and dLocal have a role to play in educating regulators on the changing payments landscape and helping shape regulation. Digital payment businesses must innovate to develop compliant products while delivering excellent customer experience. In upcoming trends to watch, stablecoins and blockchain will change cross-border money movements. It is a new opportunity for investors in fintech, but a new challenge for regulators, especially for economies with capital controls. Utilizing AI in payment services can reduce costs and increase scalability, which is integral to payment services. Credit and BNPL services continue to have strong growth potential, given the large unbanked segments in emerging economies.

Panelists highlighted how tech evolution in emerging markets is shifting from local consumer solutions to globally scalable platforms, with mobile-first models, AI integration and trust-based ecosystems driving growth. In regions like India and Africa, tech is enabling efficiency gains in historically underproductive sectors, creating opportunities for high-margin, high-growth ventures. As capital becomes more expensive, business models are adapting — moving away from heavy vertical integration and refocusing on unit economics and scalability. AI is broadly viewed as an enabling layer rather than a standalone strategy, enhancing everything from software creation to infrastructure optimization.

Mike Calvey reflected on the early 1990s as a time of extraordinary optimism in Russia, an era of pent-up demand, unleashing of human capital and entrepreneurship. He shared his experience launching a fund in 1994 that went on to back standout companies like Yandex and recalled the adventure of building Russia’s remarkable success stories. Calvey also shared memories of his arrest and personal reflections from his time in prison and spoke about the negative effect his arrest had on investor confidence in Russia.

Healthcare innovation has improved the infrastructure, delivery and quality of healthcare across global markets. However, funding scarcity and rising interest rates have led to contraction in the biotech sector, which has reduced early investment in research & development, especially for infectious diseases. The applications of AI are primarily based on improved diagnostics for customized healthcare at the population level, optimizing healthcare workflows and the digitalization of medical records. There is still more development needed until AI can be effectively utilized for drug discovery. With limited liquidity, exits in healthcare have remained focused on consolidation. Investors are targeting strategic exits to institutional partners or major healthcare groups with the ability to integrate platforms along their service chain.

In the era of US-China uncertainty, India is a clear opportunity for investors globally. All sectors have significant growth potential, but particularly healthcare and financial services. Exit markets are robust, which will be attractive for investors in providing liquidity and returns on their investments. Healthcare in India has significant growth potential given the gaps to address in access to care. The housing finance sector has grown seven times in seven years, with mortgage products being unheard of 20 years ago. A large portion of the market remains untapped and presents a significant opportunity for investors in India.

Climate investment strategies in emerging markets focus on sectors like renewable energy, food security and industrial decarbonization, where commercial returns meet pressing economic needs. Despite geopolitical shifts drawing capital back to home markets, panelists highlighted that global opportunities, particularly those with strong fundamentals like resource advantages or low-cost production, continue to attract interest. While challenges such as FX volatility, limited exit options, infrastructure gaps and crowded fundraising landscapes pose hurdles, optimism persists for regions with rising demands. Panelists emphasized that investments must deliver clear paths to scalability and profitability with success ultimately hinging on local insight, strong partnerships and scalable, cost-effective solutions.

Private capital investors face challenging exit conditions in many markets globally, with a few bright spots. India, for example, has gone from a market with limited options for exit to one where multiple paths to liquidity are viable — including public markets (due to growing domestic participation), secondaries and acquisitions by local corporates. Strategies for generating liquidity will also vary by asset class. Within the real assets space, Middle East sovereign funds and Canadian pensions continue to deploy capital globally. Across Asia, continuation funds have seen increasing adoption for PE-backed assets that have a long-term growth pathway in areas like healthcare and education. Within VC, GPs have to be opportunistic about taking money off the table and partially realizing their portfolios as part of follow-on financing rounds, especially in the lead-up to launching new funds.

The digital infrastructure agenda is shifting beyond basic connectivity toward promoting usage. Affordability remains a key barrier in many emerging markets, driving efforts to develop financing solutions that make digital services and devices more accessible. Opportunities are emerging across various segments: tower infrastructure continues to show strong potential, particularly through build-to-suit models, and fiber-to-the-home remains a highly attractive area within the fiber space. There is also a growing focus on scaling energy infrastructure to support the power needs of large data centers. From a risk perspective, it is important to remain grounded and avoid being swept up in AI-related hype. While digital infrastructure companies can deliver predictable cash flows and sustainable growth, success depends on disciplined investment and overpaying can compromise even the most promising fundamentals.

In the absence of meaningful distributions, LPs evaluating emerging fund managers should look to alternative indicators of performance such as revenue growth, follow-on funding rounds led by reputable investors and other signals that could drive future DPI. Track record proxies are also important, as evaluating a manager’s experience prior to launching their current firm can provide valuable insight into their capabilities. From an operational standpoint, smaller funds must maintain lean teams and carefully manage limited fees to ensure long-term sustainability and performance. Alignment is also critical, with a meaningful personal investment in the fund demonstrating long-term commitment and helping to align interests with LPs.

As the US and China remain locked in a fierce tech rivalry and a period of strategic decoupling, AI has become a flashpoint in both countries’ national security agendas and future economic strategies. Buoyed by strong government support, China is aggressively implementing AI across sectors, from education to civil service. Open-source models like DeepSeek exemplify China’s efficient, low-cost innovation, helping democratize AI access. This consumer-centric model stands in contrast to the US, where closed-source models dominate and adoption has largely taken hold at the enterprise level, amid heightened consumer privacy concerns. In China, AI is also viewed as a potential driver of long-term productivity gains, especially as the country’s demographic dividend fades and its workforce continues to shrink.

Roberta Brzezinski (Control Risks)

GPC Conference 2025

Convene 360 Madison Avenue