SESSION RECAPS - GPC Conference 2026

2026 Session Recaps

The Iran war is the latest in a series of shocks over the last decade rerouting trade, shifting capital flows and driving the emergence of new investors. Creative bilateral arrangements are allowing governments to limit the worst effects of the energy shock, though markets are not pricing in a true disruption should the war continue. Ukraine and CEE markets are leading the development of new defense supply chains, with a massive shift in the nature of defense spending just starting. Speakers also raised big questions around AI’s effect on welfare systems and taxation, including whether governments will tax inference or investment returns related to AI.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict had already shifted the conversation around energy resilience. With Iran, that conversation is now going global, with renewables in a strong position due to cost and speed advantages. The global context on energy is almost insatiable demand for power in the US, with all newly built gas turbines going to the US. Grids globally are not up to the task of handling new energy sources and growing demand, creating opportunities to invest not only in infrastructure, but also grid suppliers and engineering services through PE strategies. Investors are also thinking about diversifying away from the US given over-concentration in AI and growing demand across growth markets. It is a key moment to tell this story.

The reauthorized US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will expand from a USD60b to a USD205b platform over six years, enabling roughly USD30b in annual deployment and positioning it alongside major sovereign wealth funds. The mandate broadens DFC’s ability to invest globally across sectors such as infrastructure, energy, technology and critical minerals as part of a broader US foreign policy strategy.

DFC is shifting toward a more active, flexible investment model focused on direct deals and bespoke partnerships rather than passive LP commitments. The organization plans to structure investments across the capital stack — including debt, equity and insurance — while balancing commercial returns with strategic geopolitical objectives.

Infrastructure, energy and critical minerals are core priorities, with an emphasis on large-scale projects that create long-term economic ecosystems and supply chains aligned with US interests. DFC aims to replicate market-building efforts like the Marshall Plan by supporting ports, railways, power infrastructure and energy-linked AI/data center development.

Institutional investors are gravitating toward larger fund managers with robust impact measurement capabilities, particularly in Europe where regulations such as SFDR have raised reporting standards. Smaller and first-time managers often struggle to meet these requirements, making impact reporting and KPI standardization critical factors for capital deployment.

Catalytic capital structures are emerging as important tools to mobilize institutional capital into climate investments and growth markets. These structures help reduce downside risk and unlock larger commitments, though investors emphasized that simpler, scalable mechanisms and supportive policy environments are still needed to expand climate financing at scale.

Leading investors increasingly reject the idea that climate investing is concessionary, arguing that climate-focused strategies can deliver competitive returns while generating measurable impact. The market’s main constraint is viewed as risk perception and investment structuring rather than a shortage of capital or opportunities, with growing momentum toward integrating “investing with impact” into mainstream portfolio strategies.

GPCA markets present an opportunity for private credit investors, supported by lower levels of capital competition and disciplined underwriting standards that enable firms to secure more attractive transaction terms. In Latin America, attractive opportunities are emerging across structured trade finance, infrastructure, consumer credit and fintech.

Across Asia, access to domestic sources of capital is accelerating deployment, as local investor familiarity with political and currency dynamics helps reduce friction. Deepening local capital pools are also enhancing market liquidity, helping firms find multiple exit routes.

Türkiye has one of the largest and most resilient economies in the region, with a young population and government reform efforts aimed at improving the investment climate and creating fertile ground for private capital. Türkiye stands out as a strategic manufacturing and logistics hub, specializing in home appliances, commercial vehicles, glass, solar panels and steel, while connecting Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Despite currency devaluation, skilled Turkish GPs have a strong track record of creating value through import substitution and tech exports.

Incentive structures such as ESOPs, bonus pools and variable compensation are critical retention tools often introduced for the first time by institutional investors across Brazil, Africa and Southeast Asia, with higher wages justified by increased productivity and pay-performance alignment.

Talent development relies on cross-geographic training and a global labor supply chain, with growing prioritization of female talent in India and Southeast Asia due to higher retention rates, while Africa faces acute technician shortages from brain drain to Europe and Canada.

Job quality is Prioritized over quantity using metrics such as permanency, post-expense income and benefits. Auto Express in Kenya and CMGP in Morocco converted 40–60% of temporary roles to permanent, while the Multiple of Impact (MOI), developed with IFC, tracks social and environmental impact alongside IRR.

Institutional capital improves governance, accelerates annual growth from 5–10% to 20–40% and enables cross-border expansion in Africa to hedge currency risk. Investors are urged to be patient with upskilling-driven margin dips.

Private credit across GPCA markets is far more conservatively structured than in the US, with more investor protections, lower debt levels at the company level and loans that are senior, secured and amortizing. Actual default rates are also lower than many investors assume, while borrower fundamentals on leverage, interest coverage and cash balances remain strong.

Strong tailwinds drive opportunities across energy, infrastructure and supply chains. Renewables are now the cheapest energy source in more than 90% of locations; manufacturing shifts out of China are driving demand for industrial infrastructure across Mexico and Latin America; and data centers are increasingly being built where clean energy is most affordable.

Semi-liquid fund structures work particularly well for private credit in these markets because loans naturally repay around 30% annually, allowing funds to meet investor redemptions without freezing withdrawals or taking on extra debt.

As cracks appear in US private credit, including rising bad loans and liquidity concerns, investors are looking more seriously at opportunities beyond the US and rethinking traditional allocation models.

Backing visionary entrepreneurs and export champions provides a natural currency hedge and helps build resilience even in markets experiencing active conflict. Companies with strong fundamentals, transparency, strong capital structures and operational discipline were best positioned to withstand the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Four years into the war, Ukraine continues to hold ground through its ability to innovate, with defense tech emerging as a key sector that has dramatically improved the country’s air defense systems.

Global supply chains are being reorganized due to shifting geopolitical dynamics. Supply chain decisions are no longer driven solely by lowest cost, but increasingly by stability and sustainability. Better infrastructure makes it easier for companies to commit to long-term investments in new markets. India’s infrastructure investment increased dramatically, from roughly USD5b to USD150b, improving logistics and industrial connectivity.

Data sovereignty is becoming increasingly important, with companies seeking greater control over where and how data is stored. Within Europe, Poland is emerging as a hub for sovereign data centers rather than hyperscale infrastructure. Companies are also diversifying risk by building multiple supply chains instead of relying on a single region. Relative tariff positioning will matter, especially for countries with stronger trade relationships with the US, such as Mexico.

Competition for energy resources is expected to intensify significantly. Proximity, scale and access to affordable power will determine winners in the new industrial era.

Global exit activity declined by approximately 65% following the pandemic, creating significant liquidity pressure across private markets. Private capital exits were historically heavily reliant on the IPO window, but in recent years strategic sales and continuation vehicles have become increasingly relevant. Continuation vehicles have become a more common liquidity solution, allowing managers to retain high-quality assets for longer periods while still providing partial exits to existing investors. Transparency and alignment between GPs, LPs and new investors have become central considerations in continuation vehicle and secondary transaction processes.

LPs have seen an uptick in distributions and expect this to continue in 2026. Venture portfolios have been cyclical, while private equity portfolios have been less so. More mature portfolios will naturally have better liquidity, and LPs may need to take a long-term view rather than placing all expectations on GPs for distributions. Institutional investors broadly agree that a geographically diverse allocation helps mitigate geopolitical risk. Partnership and relationship building remain key factors in how LPs select GPs, alongside strong commercial performance.

Private credit has experienced less volatility than private equity and venture capital, as more institutional investors look to allocate to the asset class. Direct lending defines the popular perception of private credit, though it represents only one part of the broader asset class. In the past, private credit operated with loan-to-value ratios of roughly 90%, but those levels have declined as the asset class has evolved. Investors may need to adjust their risk perception accordingly. Ares is expecting significant growth across APAC markets, with a strategy focused on expanding its footprint in the region and “being there early.”

The African creative sector remains significantly undervalued, presenting an opportunity for investors to capitalize on demographic growth, low production costs, untapped IP markets and a relatively small investor base. Narrative control and storytelling can help unlock capital flows and reshape global perceptions of the continent away from a focus on crisis and toward opportunity. Hybrid monetization models combining social media, traditional media and short-form content offer multiple revenue streams. Africa’s rich cultural wealth positions the continent well to replicate success stories seen in Hollywood, Turkey and Korea.

The secondary market has grown significantly over the last several years, driven in part by large allocations into private markets in prior years. GP-led secondary transactions exceeded LP-led transactions for the first time in 2025. Underperforming funds can create conflicts of interest when GPs raise continuation vehicles. By years six to seven, fund performance often becomes more apparent, creating incentives for GPs to prioritize management fees over carry. LPs noted that it is often better to seek liquidity for underperforming assets earlier rather than extending them through the end of a fund’s life, given the opportunity cost of not being able to reinvest in stronger-performing funds. The discussion also highlighted the importance of preparing end-of-fund-life processes in the current market, including provisions that allow for a cleaner break with a GP if processes drag on. GPs also bear reputational risk when these situations become prolonged, with one participant noting that “a prenup is not a bad thing.”

NIMBY (“not in my backyard”) sentiment has emerged across developed markets, with water, power and land resource constraints becoming key concerns as data center projects continue to grow in scale. Developing markets across Southeast Asia and Latin America remain more welcoming given the economic development associated with data center projects, including job creation. However, NIMBY sentiment could also emerge in these markets over time as local resources become more constrained. Sustainability solutions exist to address water and power constraints and are increasingly important for developers seeking to maintain a “social license to operate.” Significant opportunities remain in closing the computing capacity gap between developed and developing markets.

Natural capital investing refers to deploying capital into assets and projects tied to ecosystems and environmental resources. The strongest opportunities combine environmental outcomes, policy support and recurring cash flow. LPs increasingly view natural capital as an inflation hedge, investing in long-term real assets aligned with global net-zero commitments. Sustainable timber and managed forestry remain among the more mature natural capital strategies. In practice, the strongest natural capital investments are disciplined, long-duration infrastructure and real-asset investments with environmental upside.

A key question for investors in sustainable products and services is whether solutions represent an economic no-brainer for customers. E-mobility solutions are increasingly meeting that hurdle given rising diesel and gasoline prices. Sustainability is also intersecting with energy security in light of the Iran war. Egypt is spending roughly USD10b per year to import natural gas, placing significant strain on budgets and pushing the government toward wind and solar alternatives.

Floods, calamities, crop protection and business interruptions are increasingly viewed as climate-linked risks. Insurers are helping increase resilience for businesses and consumers, with parametric insurance solutions emerging as an important part of the market. Credit fund managers are also incorporating sustainability provisions into deal structures, while declining costs for solar panels, batteries and inverters are increasing motivation to pursue renewables.

As more data becomes available and strategies scale, institutional capital may increasingly flow into sustainability and climate funds across growth markets, though scale remains a limiting factor for many large institutional investors.

The Indian Premier League (IPL) is the largest media asset in India, with audiences in the hundreds of millions over a two-month season. Sports leagues across the globe are becoming increasingly institutionalized, having previously been closed off to most investors.Valuations for sports properties continue to increase as audiences gravitate toward live events. The USD1.6b sale of Rajasthan Royals highlights these trends.

The IPL’s absence of promotion and relegation, combined with limited capex requirements due to government-owned infrastructure, makes it particularly compelling for financial investors. Match-day hospitality, media rights and overseas revenues also continue to expand.

Liquidity and exit planning were highlighted as central to investing across GPCA markets, where M&A remains the dominant exit route IPOs and secondaries are growing, but remain cyclical and less predictable than in mature markets.

Investors emphasized embedding exit readiness into underwriting from day one, ensuring portfolio companies are positioned to capitalize quickly when liquidity windows open.

Secondary markets are expanding across Latin America and Asia as longer holding periods and market volatility increase demand for structured liquidity solutions. Institutional investors increasingly expect managers to develop diversified liquidity toolkits rather than relying solely on traditional exit pathways.

Cross-border capital flows are accelerating market development, particularly through growing ties between Latin America, Asia and the US-India corridor. International strategic buyers, Asian institutional capital and global partnerships are driving M&A activity, creating broader pathways for liquidity and long-term market integration.

AI is reshaping the startup landscape in growth markets, with founders increasingly building AI-native ventures, both to solve deep local problems and to compete globally, often launching directly in hubs like San Francisco.

High AI adoption potential exists due to conversational platforms such as WhatsApp, fragmented legacy systems and strong STEM talent bases, with standout examples in medical imaging, semiconductor design in Egypt and space infrastructure in Kenya.

Investors see a contrarian opportunity: These markets may adopt AI faster than developed markets, and local problem-solving at scale can become the foundation for global solutions. Despite macro and geopolitical volatility, lower talent costs and founder resilience make the risk-reward attractive, and US-centric AI investing is missing high-potential deals across LatAm, Africa and the Middle East.

Healthcare remains a defensive, high-demand sector, attracting increasing institutional capital, particularly from PE firms in Dubai and Riyadh. Fundraising, however, remains challenging for first-time and emerging market funds. Regulatory arbitrage is reshaping capital and research flows. US bottlenecks are pushing clinical work to China and the Middle East, while China-West drug approval lags are driving medical tourism into Egypt and Dubai. TVM Capital Healthcare’s experience illustrates a broader regional pattern: strong 2.4x DPI and solid Gulf LP backing but limited international interest without guaranteed local co-investment. The biggest opportunities discussed included women’s health, elderly care, prevention/longevity and AI, particularly given the dramatic cost reduction potential, with genome sequencing cited as dropping from USD20k to USD500. Key risks included AI misuse, reduced DFI participation in emerging market healthcare and regulatory fragmentation.

Latin America’s fintech sector has evolved from basic payment processing into deeply integrated financial infrastructure, with embedded workflows, fraud prevention, reconciliation and operational software creating new investment opportunities across the region. Credit is viewed as the largest fintech opportunity in Latin America due to persistent informality, high interest rates and a lack of trust in traditional underwriting systems, driving demand for embedded finance models that integrate lending directly into operational workflows. Investors emphasized that durable fintech businesses are built around controlling customer relationships, payment flows and origination funnels. Early-stage investing remains highly founder-centric, prioritizing resilience, adaptability and long-term commitment.

In a constrained environment for new primary commitments, international allocators are laser-focused on VCs that make a unique contribution to their portfolios, including the problems emerging VCs are solving for their markets and the backgrounds and skillsets that make them best placed to address these opportunities.

Beyond capital, emerging VCs are also being evaluated on what they offer founders that sets them apart.

Driving sustainable unit economics and pathways to exit are essential skills LPs will scrutinize as they get to know new managers.

Left to right: Cate Ambrose (GPCA), Gustavo Ferraro (Gramercy Funds Management), Nainesh Jaisingh (Affirma Capital), Raj Pai (GEF Capital Partners), Noor Sweid (Global Ventures)

GPC Conference 2026

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